AMLConsensus · course
Programme · Lesson 4.3
Section 4 · Lesson 4.3

Why services give different scores and what consensus is

You check the same address in three services and get "12 / low", "48 / medium" and "91 / high". Who is right? The correct answer: the question is posed wrongly. These services have different label databases, different graph-traversal depths and different band thresholds. Divergence is not an error but information. In this lesson we examine the causes of divergence and how the consensus approach turns a spread of scores into a more reliable conclusion.

Cause 1: different label databases

Scoring is only as good as its label database (attribution). A label is the assertion "address 0x… belongs to the Binance exchange / the Tornado mixer / the Hydra darknet market". No one has a complete and perfectly accurate database, and here is why they differ.

Consequence. If service A knows that a counterparty address is a sanctioned mixer, while service B has not yet added it to its database, then A shows high risk and B shows low. Both are "right" relative to their own data. The absence of a flag in B does not mean "clean" but "I don't know about this source".

Cause 2: different traversal depth and model

Even with identical labels, two engines give different numbers if they traverse the graph differently. We examined this in detail in Lessons 4.1–4.2; here the practical consequences matter.

  1. Different hop depth. One counts 2 hops, another 6.A deeper traversal will find links a "shallow" one won't see — and will show higher risk.
  2. Different painting model. Haircut versus FIFO versus poison.Poison inflates the assessment, haircut understates it. The same graph — different numbers.
  3. Different decay by hop. Some aggressively dampen distant links, some do not.Hence the "noisy" high scores of services without a proper decay function.
  4. Different handling of direction. Some mix incoming and outgoing exposure into a single number, some separate them.Mixing masks where exactly the risk comes from.

Cause 3: different band thresholds

Even with an identical raw number, the final label "low/medium/high" depends on where a service draws its band boundaries. This is purely a matter of policy (risk appetite), not mathematics.

Conservative service "High" already at 50. Protects itself from fines, many false alarms.
Liberal service "High" only at 85. Less friction for the client, more missed risks.

The same wallet with a raw number of 60 is "high, refuse" at the first service and "medium, work with a caveat" at the second. That is why comparing the labels "low/medium/high" between services is almost pointless — what you need to compare is the raw numbers and, above all, what stands behind them: which categories, at which hops, with which labels.

The consensus approach: cross-checking several sources

If one source is incomplete and biased in its own way, the sensible response is not to hunt for the "best" service, but to aggregate several and read them together. This is the consensus approach (at the heart of the AMLConsensus brand).

Beware of averaging. Consensus is not "the arithmetic mean of three numbers". Averaging scores directly is dangerous: one service found a direct sanctions contact (91), two did not know about that source (12 and 15) — an average of 39 "masks" the catastrophe. A correct consensus on hard facts works by the principle of maximum/disjunction, not average: an alarm from even one reliable source on an objective fact matters more than the calm of the rest.

How to read divergences in practice

A spread of scores is a diagnostic tool. Here is how to interpret it.

  1. All services agree and low (e.g. 8/12/15). High confidence in cleanliness. Standard procedures.Agreement of independent sources is a strong signal.
  2. All agree and high (e.g. 80/85/91). High confidence in risk. Refusal/escalation.There is no need to dig deeper here — the conclusion is stable.
  3. A strong spread (e.g. 12/48/91). A red flag of uncertainty. Manual review is mandatory.We look for who has a label the others lack and verify its reliability.
  4. One source knows a hard fact, the others are silent. We trust the one that found the fact.The absence of a flag is ignorance, not confirmation of cleanliness.
Practical rule. The silence of a source never equals "clean". It equals "this source found nothing within the limits of its labels and depth". That is exactly why a single service is structurally less reliable than cross-checking several: each has its own blind spots, and they rarely coincide.

Section 4 summary

We have walked the whole chain from graph to decision. Lesson 4.1: risk is shares (exposure) that flow through the graph (taint), with a painting model and decay by hops. Lesson 4.2: shares are weighted by category severity, direction and recency, while hard flags override the arithmetic; this is how a 0–100 number and a "traffic light" are born. Lesson 4.3: different services give different numbers because of different label databases, traversal depths and thresholds — and this is not noise, but the reason to cross-check sources.

Main takeaway. No single assessment is "the truth". An assessment is a model with explicit assumptions. A professional does not ask "which number is correct" but "from which labels, at what depth, under which model and with which threshold is this number assembled — and do independent sources agree". A consensus of several sources with priority for objective hard facts gives a far more robust conclusion than any single figure. In the next section we move from scoring theory to the tools with which this data is extracted by hand — starting with blockchain explorers.

This material is for educational purposes only.